Going into first debate “without soul” -accidentally or deliberately- is a huge arrogance and frivolity. The best dreamt gift for the opponent’s campaign: one punch able to change the presidential election trend, an attitude that helped to impose the Romney team narrative for -almost- two weeks (the time between the 1st and the 2nd debate) bold and clearly; a game changer that neither the vice-presidential debate nor the second debate were able to cope.


In anticipation of what might happen tonight, we can say that the Republican campaign, if Romney maintains the status quo and doesn’t make any monumental mistake and his legs don’t tremble, has already won the election debates season to the Democrats. For the GOP it’s an important victory. Before the debates nobody imagined such an outcome. Romney was perceived as very fragile candidate: so “mission accomplished“.


American Foreign Policy is the backbone of the third presidential debate, and it’s not in the agenda in this election. Do you remember when president W. Bush didn’t know where to locate different states of the world into a map, including Spain? It’s still so surprising the Romney’s team insist advising the Governor on hitting Obama about Benghazi -by land, sea and air. Running the risk of being pointed out as “anti-patriot” is the last thing the Republican candidate may want to now.


Biden fulfill his task brilliantly and Obama in the second debate, was firm, more fluid in the confrontation of ideas that represent both models and went directly on the offensive. The face to face was intense, vibrant and both candidates fit the times: women, Romney taxes, subsidies to the automobile industry in Detroit, comments about the 47%, the immigration law in Arizona, the China jobs outsourced… the Democratic script won. A on the defensive Romney corroborated this frame.


But despite this “alleged 2-1” for the Democratic campaign, the polls have not moved and have consolidated Mitt Romney’s strong position that has matched the electoral race and the battle in Ohio and Florida – and also thanks to the Republican comeback in Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada – is again open and anything can happen.


What to expect from today’s debate? The confrontation between two opposing worldviews: the unilateralist strength vs. the multipolar diplomacy: Israel, Iran, China, Libya, Russia, the controversial Nobel Peace -climate change?- the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan … But in any case a clear victory of one candidate over another is not conceived. Today’s debate won’t be decisive.


Although another week polls show a strong Romney, still no Electoral College projection signs Romney as the winner. The difference between both candidates before the first debate was about 60 and 70 electoral votes -Obama leading-, now it’s been reduced to from 20 to 30. Deuces? Not there yet, but we are close. A Florida courts recounting the cast ballots scenario, cannot be ruled out.


Beyond the debate month ending today, the campaign will live two intense and exciting weeks. The Media endorsements battle has started: are significant and predictable? It’s true that its influence is decreasing over the time, although in some counties and states its influence is strong. This race is too close to call that any small gesture adds up.


Both campaigns are ready to “hit” the campaign for 14 days. The Democrats keep one of the most awaited and stronger image: the embrace between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Obama. What about the Republicans?


Both candidates were able to relax on Friday in New York at the traditional charities Al Smith Dinner in honor of the Catholic memory of Al Smith and his wife. A relaxed style “Correspondents Dinner White House” where both candidates laugh at themselves and about the opponent in an ingenious way:



A must tradition that we should import to these latitudes!



Recommended Articles:


- Are the Gallup conclusions reliable?d, via Washinton Monthly

- “Foreseen”- electoral results scenarios?, Professor Michael Cornfield

- The Debates narrative, Professor Alan Schroeder.

- 5 energy points that won’t be discussed on tonight’s debate, Ezra Klein.



@aleixcuberes is an @ingenia_pro founder and consultant

One Response to #2012 Campaign Diaries: 2 weeks left, pre-3rd presidential debate

  1. [...] publicado en http://www.ingenia-pro.com -es probable que el video final de C-SPAN no se pueda reproducir, aquí lo tenéis [...]

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